Monday 150713

Christmas in July!

For time:

1 – Burpee
2 – 95 lbs PP
3 – 95 lbs FS
4 – 95 lbs PCLS
5 – 95 lbs DL
6 – Box Jumps
7 – Pull-ups
8 – Push-ups
9 – Ab Mat sit-ups
10 – Air Squats
11 – 53 lbs KB Swings
12 – A 400M Run

So the workout is:

1 Burpee then

2 Push Press and 1 Burpee then

3 Front Squats, 2 Push Press and 1 Burpee etc

Compare to: Thursday 140710

2015 CFG Analysis Games Pick ‘Em Now Open

Welcome to the CFG Analysis Games Pick ‘Em!  This is our second year doing the contest after a pretty good first go-round in 2014.

This year your picks will be submitted through a web form (link at the bottom of this post) rather than through the comments, although please use the comments to let me know of any issues you’re having submitting your picks through the form.  I’ll try to update this page regularly with a list of everyone’s picks, so let me know if you spot something that looks off.  Currently the form can only enforce certain rules (such as requiring six athletes and wagers on each between 1-50), but it can’t do the math for you, so if you have more or less than 100 points wagered, I’ll let you know once I go to publish the next day’s picks.  At that point, it’s up to you to submit a corrected entry, since I’ll be deleting any invalid picks once the contest starts.

OK, below are the official rules.  Even if you entered last year, please read these over.  A few items have changed.

  • Each contestant has 100 points to wager on six different athletes.  You can wager those points in whole-number increments, with a max of 50 and a minimum of 1 on each athlete.
  • You must select one wager on an athlete of each gender to win, finish top 3 (podium) and finish top 10.
  • The payout on each correct pick is based on my predictions (see below) of each athlete’s chances of winning, finishing top 3 and finishing top 10.  If you wager 20 points on an athlete to win, and I give that athlete a 10% chance to win, you get 200 points if they win.
  • On the form, each athlete’s name is followed by three numbers.  These are the respective payouts for a win, top 3 and top 10.
  • At the end of the Games, the winner is the contestant who has the highest total payout on their picks.
  • You have until the start of event 1 on July 22 to get your picks in.  If you want to revise your picks, please just submit a new entry and post to comments (on this page) that you’d like me to delete your first entry.  As noted above, entries with invalid point totals or with the same athlete in multiple spots will eventually be deleted, but I will notify you first.
  • You may want to write down your picks as your are filling them out.  The form won’t automatically send you a confirmation, but you will be able to see your picks once I update the public list of entries, which will usually be daily-ish.  I may end up posting them to a shared Google drive if the list gets lengthy (let’s hope!).
This is all free, and there is no formal prize, but if you’d like, I’m extending an invitation to chat with me on the podcast for the winner.  If interested, please submit your email address.  That’s optional, and don’t worry, if you submit your email address, I’m not going to contact you for anything unrelated to this contest, and I won’t publish it.

For a little bit more background on how I make these predictions, read up here and listen to the podcast below.  The basic idea is that these picks are based on the simulations of the Games based on combinations of the events that have happened so far this year, but there’s a bit more to it than that.  I’ve made some enhancements this year, so in theory, this year’s contest should be a little more challenging than in the past.  Enjoy!

Click here to access the contest entry form.  You can fill out the form on a mobile device or a computer.  Keep in mind this is my first time using this software, so I apologize in advance if things are a little buggy early on.  Let me know in the comments here what kind of issues you’re having and I’ll do my best to get things fixed up.  Of course,  this is not my full-time job, so it could be several hours before I get to it.  Worst-case, just post your picks to the comments and I’ll get it added.

Thursday 140710

Christmas in July!

For time:

1 – Burpee

2 – 95 lbs PP

3 – 95 lbs FS

4 – 95 lbs PCLS

5 – 95 lbs DL

6 – Box Jumps

7 – Pull-ups

8 – Push-ups

9 – Ab Mat sit-ups

10 – Air Squats

11 – 53 lbs KB Swings

12 – A 400M Run

So the workout is:

1 Burpee then

2 Push Press and 1 Burpee then

3 Front Squats, 2 Push Press and 1 Burpee etc

Hey, TitanFit Family, Anders has created a FREE to enter  CF Games Pick ‘Em game.  It is so well thought out, it has been linked by several other CrossFit Affiliates.  Anders has put a lot of time into this project, so let’s support our friend.

The TitanFit member with the highest score will win a TitanFit t-shirt of tank top.

CrossFit Game Analysis

I’ve toyed with the idea of putting together some sort of CrossFit Games pool or contest for the past couple of years, but a couple of things held me back.  One, I wasn’t sure if there was enough interest and enough readership here to support it; and two, I really didn’t know how a CrossFit Games pool should work.Given the pretty decent volume of responses we got for the SWAG’s during this years’ Open, I think (hope?) there is enough interest to do something more formal for the Games this year. So we’re going to try and see what happens. But how will it work? Well, since the CrossFit Games are unlike most sports where you see pools or pick ’em contests (NCAA basketball, college football bowls, World Cup), the set-up of this contest will be decidedly different as well. It will also give me a chance to put some of the analysis I’ve been doing here to use. So here’s the set-up:

  • Around the beginning of July, I will release my predictions for this year’s CrossFit Games. These predictions, like last year, will contain the expected chance of each individual athlete winning, placing top 3 and placing top 10. These predictions are based almost entirely on the results from this year’s Open and Regionals.
  • Using these predictions, you enter the contest by placing “wagers” on three male athletes and three female athletes. Each person entering the contest will get 20 points with which to make these wagers. Your result in the contest is based on how much your wagers end up paying off.
  • The payoff for each wager is based on my predictions. For instance, last year I gave Rich Froning a 59% chance of winning. If you wagered 5 points on Froning to win, you would receive 5/0.59 = 8.47 points for that pick. If you wagered 5 points on Jason Khalipa to win, you would receive 0 points since he did not win.
  • You must make exactly 6 wagers:
    • One male, one female to win
    • One male, one female to place top 3
    • One male, one female to place top 10
  • You may spread your 20 points among these 6 wagers in any way you choose. The wagers must be in whole point increments and you must wager at least 1 point on each pick.
As an example, let’s pretend I was entering this contest last year. I decide to wager as follows:
  • 5 points Rich Froning to win (59%)
  • 3 points Jason Khalipa to place top 3 (34%)
  • 3 points Lucas Parker to place top 10 (27%)
  • 4 points Sam Briggs to win (32%)
  • 4 points Camille Leblanc-Bazinet to place top 3 (26%)
  • 1 points Alessandra Pichelli place top 10 (24%)
I would have made 8.47 on Froning, 8.82 on Khalipa, 0 on Parker, 12.50 on Briggs, 0 on Leblanc-Bazine and 4.17 on Pichelli. In total, I’d have 33.96 points (this would be 13.96 in profit). My guess is that would have been a pretty good effort.
There is no entry fee. The prize? Glory. Lots of glory. If this works out well this year, maybe I’ll figure out a way to actually give something tangible away next year.

So be on the lookout for my predictions coming in the next couple weeks. After the predictions come out, post your wagers to the comments on THIS POST. I’ll try to provide updates after each day of the Games regarding the current standings. Have fun everyone![UPDATE 7/1: Predictions are below and the contest is now open. These predictions are final, with the following exceptions:

  • If an athlete withdraws prior to the first event, all other athletes’ chances will be adjusted upward to relect the loss of that athlete. I’ll repost the predictions as soon as I can.
  • If an extra athlete gets a wild card before the Games, I will be forced to re-run all the predictions. I won’t change the methodology, so you can expect the chances for most athletes to remain similar.

In the event that I do have to change the predictions for the reasons above, all wagers will be against the revised picks. You can change your own picks anytime up until the start of the first event, for any reason. These predictions are rounded to the nearest 0.1%, but Read more Thursday 140710

Wednesday 130717

We were to post “Pheezy” today, but it is time for “Christmas In July!”

Workout
Team – “Christmas In July!”

1 – Burpees
2 – 95 lbs PP
3 – 95 lbs FS
4 – 95 lbs PCLS
5 – 95 lbs DL
6 – Box Jumps
7 – Pull-ups
8 – Push-ups
9 – Ab Mat sit-ups
10 – Air Squats
11 – 53 lbs KB Swings
12 – A 500M Row

So the workout is:
1 Burpee
then 2 Push Press and 1 Burpee
then 3 Front Squats, 2 Push Press and 1 Burpee etc

Compare to: Wednesday 120725

From NBC News

Too fat to rescue? More heavy patients denied air ambulances

JoNel Aleccia NBC News

Air medical transport is an extremely valuable healthcare service in America.  The skill set of the clinicians on board the aircraft along with the sp...

Photo courtesy of Air Methods / Air Methods
Emergency medical helicopters and fixed-wing planes transport some 500,000 people a year, but some patients have to be turned away because they exceed weight and size rules.

For the 446-pound patient in New Mexico, having a heart attack wasn’t the worst thing that happened last April.

Even more harrowing was being turned down by the air ambulance that came to the rescue — because the victim was too big to get off the ground.

“It’s an issue for sure,” said Craig Yale, vice president of corporate development for Air Methods, one of the nation’s biggest air medical transport providers. “We can get to a scene and find that the patient is too heavy to be able to go.”

Increasingly, America’s growing girth is grounding patients who need emergency help by air, say Yale and other operators. An estimated 5,000 super-sized patients a year – or about 1 percent of more than 500,000 medical air flights annually in the U.S. – are denied transport because they exceed weight and size limits or because they can’t fit through the aircraft doors.

Experts say the nation’s plus-size proportions – at least two-thirds of adults are overweight or obese – are now forcing emergency medical providers to bolster their fleets, buying bigger helicopters and fixed-wing planes, or risk leaving critically ill and injured clients behind.

Just this spring alone, records show that at least three other Air Methods patients were declined, including a 460-pound Texas victim who couldn’t breathe, a 444-pound Arizona patient with severe abscesses and cellulitis and a 225-pound Arizona patient Read more Wednesday 130717

Wednesday 120725

Workout

the plan was for “Barbara” today…then I remembered it is time for Christmas in July!

For time:
1 – Burpees
2 – 95 lbs PP
3 – 95 lbs FS
4 – 95 lbs PCLS
5 – 95 lbs DL
6 – Box Jumps
7 – Pull-ups
8 – Push-ups
9 – Ab Mat sit-ups
10 – Air Squats
11 – 53 lbs KB Swings
12 – A 500M Row

So the workout is:
1 Burpee
then 2 Push Press and 1 Burpee
then 3 Front Squats, 2 Push Press and 1 Burpee etc

Tuesday 110719

Workout

the plan was for 100 Burpees today…then I remembered it is time for Christmas in July!

For time:
1 – Burpees
2 – 95 lbs PP
3 – 95 lbs FS
4 – 95 lbs PCLS
5 – 95 lbs DL
6 – Box Jumps
7 – Pull-ups
8 – Push-ups
9 – Ab Mat sit-ups
10 – Air Squats
11 – 53 lbs KB Swings
12 – A 500M Row

So the workout is:
1 Burpee
then 2 Push Press and 1 Burpee
then 3 Front Squats, 2 Push Press and 1 Burpee etc

Thursday 080703

Workout
For time:
1 – Burpees
2 – 95 lbs PP
3 – 95 lbs FS
4 – 95 lbs PCLS
5 – 95 lbs DL
6 – Box Jumps
7 – Pull-ups
8 – Push-ups
9 – Ab Mat sit-ups
10 – Air Squats
11 – 53 lbs KB Swings
12 – A 500M Row

So the workout is:
1 Burpee
then 2 Push Press and 1 Burpee
then 3 Front Squats, 2 Push Press and 1 Burpee etc…